A look at the chart of XLF :
- Currently at the resistance of the 50d MA
- A wedge has formed
- A break out can be expected
Looking at the weekly chart might give us a clue about the direction:
- In the beginning of march we see a strong ending of the week followed by stronger weeks.
- There was a volume breakout
- Is this a weekly reversal candle ?
If the markets (DIA, SPY, NASDAQ) continue their highs, I would expect a catch up play of Financials, meaning a breakout of the wedge to the upside.