Oil shortage or not ?

An interesting article with a Long Term view on oil demand :

The highlights :

  • Increased Demand, but no increase in supply : The International Energy Agency (IEA) is expecting oil demand this year to rise to 89.1 million barrels a day. That new estimate is 400,000 barrels a day more than it expected last month.
  • China Expected to Be Biggest Oil Consumer by 2030 : China’s thirst for oil is expected to rise to 17.5 million bpd. This means China would overtake the U.S. as the world’s biggest oil consumer.
  • India Shifts into Higher Gear : Heck, India’s Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, recently admitted that his country’s oil demand should jump 40% in the next decade!
  • There ARE New Oil Discoveries, But it takes a LONG time to bring those new oil finds to market. Tapping some of those deepwater fields requires technology that hasn’t even been perfected yet. And the sad fact is that the Brazilian finds, as well as new discoveries in China and Angola, and the potential for increased production in Iraq, just aren’t enough to make up for the rapid depletion of existing oil fields.

A look at the daily chart :

  • current support level at 37.5, also the 50dMA
  • this could be a buy on the dip opportunity. Wait for 2 to 3 days

A look at the weekly chart :

  • a 10 dollar range channel for the last 1.5 years.
  • Trend of latest 6 months is upward
  • a break of the 42 level is a realistic entry point to go further up to 52, the 200 d MA

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