Martket scan after 1 week off

One week out of the country (skiing in a sunny, beautiful Switzerland setting). Coming back and catching up some news, my senses register :

  • markets keep rising, although I read a lot of bearish signals / wishes (?)
  • Finally a solution for Greece, although I recall hearing that already a few times lately. And will 30 billion EUR be enough ? It all starts “small” Remember March 14, 2008 :

“On March 14, the Fed threw out four decades of monetary history and became a creditor of Bear Stearns to stave off a run on the firm. Two days later it backed J.P. Morgan Chase’s takeover of Bear for about $240 million, guaranteeing as much as $30 billion of the firm’s “less-liquid assets.”

Ending up with a 700 billion usd plan. And by this time of writing, another 50 billion EUR for Greece seems logical. This doesn’t feel good at all.

  • the EUR is still in a downtrend against USD.
  • A lot of fuzz about the Dow and its near 11.000 notation
  • Gold moved up nicely. Are we worried by the earnings releases Q1 starting next week ?
  • Volatility is low, but can rise sudden and fast. Here is an interesting comparison with S&P 500
  • Fear for China, although FXI rose nicely.
  • Oil keeps rising

What’s up for next week :

While earnings are expected to be the focus, the week also brings the Consumer Price Index, March retail sales, industrial production, housing starts and consumer sentiment reports, which will help investors gauge the speed of the economic recovery.

My conclusion : Yes, I think there should be worries, but as long as markets neglect them we go up. And with tight stops, risks can be limited.

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