sensilively

S&P500 new highs minus new lows move opposite of the S&P500 index

llman — Sat, 21 Jan 2012 19:51:10 +0000

A zoom into the S&P500 stocks at 52-wk highs minus lows. I did the zoom as it struck me how there was a distinctive point where the S&P500 went up and the high minus lows went down. It suggest that a break of the steep uptrend of S&P500 is coming. Watch the mean level for the new high minus low indicator.
- if it holds, is a small correction and a “buy on the dip” -> this would be the best situation for the longer term
- if it breaks, and S&P breaks below 1300, it is a crack in the confidence of the latest uptrend

Filed under: Financial markets Tagged: SPY

S&P500 stocks above 200-day Moving Average

llman — Sat, 21 Jan 2012 18:59:35 +0000

The % of S&P 500 stocks above the 200-day moving average is back above the mean level. It was a steep rise, but there is more room to the upside. With the orange boxes you can see a comparison with the summer period of 2010. Comparing patterns with historical ones however is very tricky, as there circumstances always are different.
But, fact is that too strong uptrend has to be followed by a period of pullbacks and/or channels. So, keep this one on your radar for the coming weeks/months

Filed under: Financial markets Tagged: SPY

Weekly chart on financials

llman — Fri, 20 Jan 2012 21:12:23 +0000

On the weekly chart you can see XLF touching the resistance of the october highs and then falling back under it.A break is needed for continued upward movements.
I’ve bought some FAZ to test this resistance.

Filed under: Uncategorized Tagged: FAS, FAZ, XLF

Daily and weekly chart of the DBA Agriculture ETF

llman — Mon, 16 Jan 2012 20:39:36 +0000

Weekly view of the PowerShares DB Multi-Sector Commodity Trust Agriculture fund :- Coming out of an oversold level
- Conquering the 200W MA
- MACD is turning positive
- Overall trend is still negative, but could happen

Daily view :
- Ascending triangle
- Clear resistance level at 29.4 and the 50d MA. Two levels to be broken in order to break the downtrend

Filed under: Commodities Tagged: DBA

Sugar in a bottoming process

llman — Sun, 15 Jan 2012 09:23:49 +0000

- Sugar is in a multiple week bottoming process.
- It made a first attempt to break out of the channel in the beginning of the year. – Trend is flat and starting to move up
- A break above 85 is a buy signal, with the stop loss just below 85.

Filed under: Commodities Tagged: SGG

IBM head and shoulders pattern

llman — Fri, 13 Jan 2012 21:18:09 +0000

Clear head & shoulders. The support is the neckline, with the 200d MA as a last resort before a breakdown to 150.

Filed under: Technology Tagged: IBM

Trading wisdom from Einstein

llman — Sat, 12 Nov 2011 09:55:04 +0000

I am currently on a sunny relaxing weekend in Germany (Eifel region) The only moment I had to think about trading is by the quote, written on the wall in our hotel room :

“Du hast eine Sache erst
Dann richtig verstanden,
Wenn Du sie Deiner
Grossmutter erklaren kannst.

Albert Einstein”

Translated : you can only understand something yourself if you are able to explain it to your grandma.

Keep trading simple, with no too many indicators.

Enjoy the weekend !

Dirk

Filed under: Uncategorized

Silver recovering

llman — Tue, 08 Nov 2011 05:13:56 +0000

Filed under: Commodities Tagged: SLV

Gold broke an important resistance

llman — Tue, 08 Nov 2011 05:07:33 +0000

Filed under: Commodities Tagged: gld

Should the US focus on itself ?

llman — Tue, 08 Nov 2011 04:57:57 +0000

A reality check here, written by Displaced EMA

“Our [The US] country is almost $15TRN. in debt. The debate is about cutting just $1.5 TRN. over 10 years. This debate should be front and center. It should be dominating our airwaves. The media has basically decided to ignore the debate, which must be settled by November 23.”

Given the turbulance on the financial markets of the previous agreement in july, we can not ignore this in the coming weeks !

Filed under: Financial markets Tagged: SPY